Fourth Quarter 2024 Review

By nearly every fundamental metric, the U.S. economy had a stellar year in 2024.

Looking ahead, President-elect Trump is inheriting an economy that is the envy of the world. U.S. exceptionalism is apparent in macroeconomic statistics like labor productivity as well as share of global earnings growth. The challenge is that expectations for the cyclical upturn are already high, and the new administration could become sidetracked with issues the business community sees as unproductive—such as universal tariffs and excessive deportation focus.

If the new administration pursues business-friendly, rational policies with a controlled pro-growth focus, however, we see the current elevated expectations of growth as achievable. Stocks would respond well to better-than-expected growth, in our view.